Kenya Short Rains 2026: When Rain Starts in Your County
Kenya's short rains are due to start in Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Meru and neighbouring counties in the second to third week of October and in Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita-Taveta in the third to fourth week, the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) forecasts. Most of the country is expected to get above-average rain from October to December, and the rains continue in western Kenya from September (KMSA's outlook of Aug. 26).
The Kenya Meteorological Department's weekly forecast for Oct. 16 to 23 expects rain in many counties, especially in the west (Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma, Kisumu, Kisii, Nyamira, Migori, Siaya and Homa Bay), the Rift Valley (including Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu), central Kenya (Nyeri, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia and Nyandarua) and parts of Garissa, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale, with showers possible in parts of Nairobi, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Narok, and isolated storms possible in some places (Dawan Africa).
When will the short rains start in your county?
Already under way, from September
- Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok: rains continue into January; fair to good spread.
Second to third week of October (about Oct. 8 to 21)
- Nairobi, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi: rains continue into January; fair to good spread.
- Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and the Tana Delta: rains end in the first to second week of December; fair to good spread.
- Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo: rains end in the first to second week of December; fair to good spread.
Third to fourth week of October (about Oct. 15 to 28)
- Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River: rains continue into January; fair to good spread.
- Turkana and Samburu: rains end in the first week of December; poor to fair spread.
The list is KMSA's Table 1 for the October to December 2026 season (KMSA). KMSA gives weeks of October, not dates. Reading the 2nd week as Oct. 8 to 14, the 3rd as Oct. 15 to 21 and the 4th as Oct. 22 to 28 is our own approximation. KMSA says it will update the onset, distribution and end of the rains through its weekly and monthly forecasts, so the dates can shift. Nairobi Wire's summary of the Met department's briefing gave earlier onset dates for Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo than KMSA's table does (Nairobi Wire), so check your county's own forecast.
How much rain is forecast?
- Above average over 43 counties named by KMSA, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kakamega, Meru, Machakos, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera, and over much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit.
- Near average to above average in Turkana and a few parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit.
- Wet spells: KMSA expects “prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms” in several parts of the country.
- Drought: the chance of drought is low in most places, except a 15 to 20% chance of a mild drought in Turkana.
- Heat: temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average, most likely in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu, and parts of Tana River, Taita-Taveta and Garissa.
The short rains matter most in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Taita-Taveta and Machakos counties and parts of Kajiado and Tana River, where they bring more than 40% of the year's rain. Some parts get more than 700 mm in the season (KMSA).
Why is it expected to be so wet?
KMSA points to a strong El Niño. The weekly Niño 3.4 index, which tracks the Pacific's warmth, reached +2.7°C in the week of Aug. 12, and KMSA said El Niño was heading towards a very strong event. The Indian Ocean Dipole, the other main driver of East African rain, was neutral in late August, but KMSA expected it to pass the positive threshold from September, which would add to the rain (KMSA). The Met department's acting director of meteorological services, Edward Muriuki, said the pattern comes from El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole acting together, and asked the public not to blame the rain on El Niño alone (Nairobi Wire).
KMSA picked 2015 as the “analogue” year, a past season with similar ocean conditions. It says that year is for reference only and is not the forecast.
What to expect: floods, roads and farms
- Flash floods: people in low-lying areas, floodplains and landslide-prone ground are told to take precautions against flash floods and soil erosion (Nairobi Wire). The weekly forecast says the amount of rain will differ from place to place, even within one county (Dawan Africa).
- Farms: the extra moisture helps land preparation, planting, pasture and livestock water. Heavy downpours can waterlog soil, raise crop disease risk, disrupt harvests and block rural roads (Nairobi Wire).
- Roads: transporters have asked the Kenya National Highways Authority to speed up drainage work on the Narok to Mai Mahiu road before the rains intensify. It was shut on March 7 after flooding (Kenya News Agency).
Where to check your local forecast
- KMSA: daily and weekly forecasts at meteo.go.ke, and on X at @MeteoKenya.
- Your county: KMSA asks people to use its weekly and monthly county forecasts from the county meteorological offices together with the seasonal outlook (KMSA).
This page will be updated if KMSA revises the forecast.
The seasonal forecast is KMSA's outlook of Aug. 26, 2026 (document KMSA/FCST/08-2026/TS/02), read on Oct. 15, with news from Dawan Africa, Nairobi Wire and the Kenya News Agency. A seasonal forecast is a prediction, not a certainty, and the outlook of Aug. 26 can change.
